The Contenders

Brad Free: Fast figs, gained seasoning in eventful win at SA, wants 1 1/4m, legit fave but not invincible

David Aragona: Proved San Felipe progression was no fluke; Derby fave will be tough to deny with a fair trip

BF: Virtually paired career-best fig finishing well for second in Florida Derby, ideal Run for Roses prep

DA: Would have liked to see him run a bit faster in Florida Derby; still must respect his strong late kick

BF: Ran to improved works wiring Wood; just wonder if he is one-dimensional need-the-lead

DA: Finally got chance to shine at Aqueduct, but with a perfect setup; agree with Brad about Derby pace

BF: Fast, versatile, smart colt will try to win Ky. Derby in fourth career start a la Big Brown, Justify, Mage

DA: Has gotten much more professional with each start; bodes well for overcoming lack of seasoning

BF: Four straight wins in Japan; stakes two back flattered when 4-3 finishers ran 1-3 U.A.E. Derby

DA: Displayed awesome turn of foot in Fukuryu, same race T O Password won prior to Derby 5th last year

BF: Late-runner benefited from suicidal pace in final prep, hopes for another 45-change half to set up rally

DA: Finally ran a respectable Beyer, but didn't love the way he once again was swerving in the stretch

BF: Beneficial pace collapse led to victory in Blue Grass that did not appear all that great visually

DA: Wanted to see him finish a bit stronger at KEE given beneficial setup; at least he'll get the distance

BF: Did clock strike midnight for Cinderella story at OP, or was he too close to pace/moved too soon?

DA: Making first move into extreme pace didn't help, but like Brad have concerns about added distance

BF: Wood runner-up ran as well or better than Wood winner; Grande was compromised by wide trip

DA: Lightly raced colt adapted well to getting shuffled and pushed wide; another with plenty of stamina

BF: Front-runner misfired in final prep, may have tough time carrying speed vs. pace foe East Avenue

DA: Exposed in SA Derby when unable to secure easy lead; may not want to go Derby distance anyway

BF: Sent hard to make lead and got nailed in Blue Grass, Ky. Derby rabbit for same owner's Sovereignty?

DA: Need-the-lead type is important addition to this race, as he significantly alters the pace scenario

BF: Late-runner put it all together in La. Derby that set up perfectly, will finish fast in Ky. Derby

DA: Got the right trip in fast-paced FG victory; clearly wants to run all day, but will need racing luck

BF: Front-runner's U.A.E. Derby validates Luxor Cafe, who beat Admire Daytona decisively in Japan

DA: Did well to withstand contentious early pace in Dubai; showed more versatility in prior Japan starts

BF: Dominated second-tier field in one-turn nine-furlong race at CNL, will face a daunting class hike

DA: Sustained honest pace in dominant Va. Derby score; few can match this mammoth's physical stature

BF: Lightly raced closer produced more tactical speed in La. Derby; ran better, paired his career-best fig

DA: $2,500 yearling is an overachiever; ran better than looks in both preps; will need to improve again

DA: Synthetic-surface specialist reportedly worked well on dirt since TP upset, still seems like a reach

BF: Ruby win was visually impressive, but pedigree leans turf and he lacks any early speed whatsoever

BF: Benefited by closers-friendly race flow OP; seven-start maiden not impossible if pace collapses

DA: Plodder got similar trip to Sandman, and couldn't stay with that rival late; maiden will be a longshot

BF: Turf-synthetic specialist banked 50 points at TP, but has never raced on dirt nor run particularly fast

DA: Ruby runner-up finish puts him in the field, but making dirt debut in the Derby is a daunting task

BF: Bizarre addition to Ky. Derby field after nowhere finish KEE; hope horse survives this campaign

DA: Figures to be another pace factor; hard to build much of a case for him as a serious contender